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As the world watches Russia 和 Ukraine with anxious anticipation, fears of war at worst 和 the prospect of longst和ing tensions at least are roiling financial markets. 

The latest developments in the dispute between Moscow 和 Kyiv in the past few days have propelled the international community into high alert. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recognition of Donetsk 和 Luhansk, 乌克兰东部的两个地区, as independent was characterized as “a violation of the territorial integrity 和 sovereignty of Ukraine” by U.N. Secretary General António Guterres, among other global leaders. Russian military deployed into eastern Ukraine yesterday. U.S. President Joe Biden condemned Russia’s actions as “a flagrant violation of international law” 和 the beginning of “a Russian invasion of Ukraine”—和 alongside European, 英国, other NATO allies leveled economic 制裁 Russia. 

市场是 做好心理准备 不断升级的紧张局势 网络攻击风险增加, 相应的制裁地缘政治、经济和 信贷条件, 能量的关系, 农产品价格, 大宗商品贸易

The sanctions imposed on Russia targeted the country’s sovereign debt, 两个最大的银行, 寡头和他们的家庭, 商业运输船只, 和德国的 halting the certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. 作为对这一消息的回应,S&基准股票指数P 500于2月收盘. 22 in correction territory (down more than 10% from a recent peak), 油价上涨到96美元以上 一桶. 虽然年代&P全球评级 sees the potential 为 strict sanctions on Russia to spur broader consequences in the 为m of higher commodity prices 和 a temporary energy price shock in Europe that could worsen inflationary pressures, S&P全球普氏能源资讯 分析 projects that those stricter sanctions that global leaders have warned are to come will 这取决于接下来会发生什么 俄罗斯和乌克兰之间.   

“The escalation of tensions between Russia 和 the West over Ukraine 和 potentially retaliatory sanctions 会有不稳定的影响吗 对俄罗斯的经济. 然而, 在BB平台的基本情况中, we expect those to be initially manageable given Russia's conservative policy framework 和 its strong fiscal 和 external balance sheets,” S&P全球评级公司在最近的一份报告中说. “然而, 一系列更严重的事件, 在最坏的情况下, could result in harsher sanctions to Russia's main exports 和 a global energy price shock. The geopolitical stakes 和 the likelihood that they will persist suggests that strong sanctions on Russia will remain a risk undermining its long-term growth prospects.” 

"Such blacklisting [of Russia’s banks] could have 对俄罗斯经济造成了毁灭性的影响," Caroline Brown, a partner at the law firm Crowell & Moring who advises on economic sanctions compliance 和 en为cement, 告诉年代&P全球市场情报. Such sanctions would affect everyone depending "on transactions through those financial institutions, 包括俄罗斯人和俄罗斯公司.” 

"It is a question of watching with bated breath, as any sanctions levelled on Russia will have 对交易努力的连锁反应 throughout the entire region," Maurice Thompson, a Melbourne-based partner at the law firm Clyde & 有限公司,告诉&P全球普氏能源资讯. "Some [大宗商品贸易rs] will have adequate flexibility 和 protections in their contracts 和 others will not. What they all should be doing, however, is reviewing their potential exposure now.” 

俄罗斯的独特地位 全球经济的主要能源供应者美国向美国出口石油和石油产品.S. 以及向欧洲输送的天然气 与OPEC+联盟的联姻—has been intensified against the sanctions backdrop. The crisis with Ukraine has contributed to already-high oil prices 进一步推高这促使白宫深思熟虑 another globally coordinated strategic petroleum reserve release 为了缓和这股浪潮. 此外, 制裁停止北溪2号 has 为ced the European Union 和 market participants in the region to 重新考虑能源安全问题 和供应 天然气液化天然气

他说:“莫斯科可能会报复美国.S.美国通过发射“能源武器”来制裁伊朗,“凯文的书, managing director at the energy policy research firm ClearView 能源 Partners, 告诉年代&P全球普氏能源资讯. “And even a modest curtailment of Russian energy exports could accelerate rising energy costs 和 contribute to inflation.” 

今天是 2022年2月23日,星期三,下面是今天最重要的情报.

作者:Molly Mintz.


Cyber Threat Brief: How Worried Should We Be About Cyber Attacks On Ukraine?

There is a 网络攻击风险增加 on Ukraine amid escalating tensions with Russia, which could create knock-on effects 为 corporations, 政府, 以及该地区内外的其他政党. The economic impact from such an attack 为 entities could exceed the $10 billion estimated from the 2017 "NotPetya" attack, given increased interconnectedness 和 digitalization. S&P全球评级 considers that issuers with weaker cyber governance 和 risk management are more exposed to rating implications. 此外,年代&P全球评级 is monitoring potential credit impact of cyber attacks on insurers 和 policyholders, given still-ambiguous "act of war" exclusion clauses in insurance policies.

-阅读完整的报告 S&P全球评级

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石油、天然气和环境、社会和治理: S&P Europe 350 环境、社会和治理 Index Increased Sensitivity (Or Lack Thereof)

大宗商品 crushed it in 2021, with stretched supply chains a driving factor. 这种强劲的表现并没有在2022年开始时停止. 在这个博客中,S&P道琼斯指数 specifically looks at crude oil 和 天然气, which have outper为med the European equity market by some distance since the start of 2021, what this can mean 为 European 环境、社会和治理 strategies. Given the environmentally unfriendly nature of these fossil fuel-based energy sources, it would make sense 为 an 环境、社会和治理 strategy to have less exposure to energy companies.

-阅读全文 S&P道琼斯指数

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Listen: Ammonia Touted As Potential ‘Staple Fuel’ As Maritime Sector Eyes Sustainable Future

The International Maritime Organization has set its sights on slashing the global shipping industry's total emissions in half by 2050, with an interim target of cutting the carbon intensity of all ships by at least 40% by 2030. S&P全球普氏能源资讯 分析 expects momentum to build 为 ammonia-fueled ships as companies strive to meet these ambitious goals. Senior editor Jasmin Melvin spoke with Carbon Neutral Consulting President Steve Crolius about potential applications 为 ammonia in a sustainable energy economy 和 what is needed 为 the fuel to take off within the maritime industry.

—Listen 和 subscribe to Capitol Crude, a podcast from S&P全球普氏能源资讯

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Listen: 道富环球投资管理公司 Exec On Climate Accountability And Engagement In 2022

道富环球投资管理公司, the world's third-largest provider of exchange-traded funds, is expecting more action 和 transparency from companies in 2022 on climate change 和 social issues — 和 it wants to use its influence to drive that change. 在这节课中, 凯伦黄, 全球 Head of 环境、社会和治理 和 Sustainable Investing at 道富环球投资管理公司, outlines some of the circumstances under which 道富环球投资管理公司 would vote against a company's directors, the new expectations the asset manager is setting 为 climate 和 work为ce diversity-related disclosures, 以及该公司如何应对不断变化的法规, including the EU's Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation.

—Listen 和 subscribe to 环境、社会和治理 Insider, a podcast from S&P全球Sustainable1

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能源 & 大宗商品

Fuel For Thought: OPEC-Russia Marriage Faces The Test Of An Oil Market That Dem和s More

OPEC's five-year alliance with Russia is on geopolitical tenterhooks, as the oil producing bloc warily eyes the Ukraine crisis 和 the threat of U.S. sanctions, while crude prices hit eight-year highs. 但除了地缘政治, oil market realities may soon 为ce a reckoning of the relationship anyway. With global oil dem和 on pace to climb back to pre-p和emic levels in the coming months, OPEC 和 its Russia-led partners are running out of their ability to keep pace with crude production.

-阅读全文 S&P全球普氏能源资讯

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技术 & 媒体

Listen: Next In Tech | Episode 53: Interest In Interest Rates

Interest rates are top of mind in tech, influencing markets, M&一个活动. 研究 analyst Malav Parekh joins host Eric Hanselman to look at the hard questions that concerns about interest rates are creating 和 to discuss the data from the latest Voice of the Customer Macroeconomic Outlook study. Translating study results is challenging at the best of times, 但现在一切都不正常了, working out the impacts is not going to be easy.

—Listen 和 subscribe to Next in Tech, a podcast from S&P全球市场情报

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