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美国

Wage-Price Spiral Unlikely in U.S. Even as Pay, Prices Soar

美国.S. economy is likely to avoid a 1970s-style wage-price spiral even as wages and inflation are rising at their highest rates in roughly 40 years.

"For a wage-price spiral to settle in, you need people to believe that inflation is going to increase indefinitely,格雷戈里·达科说, chief economist at consultancy EY-Parthenon. "We're not seeing that."

A wage-price spiral occurs when consumers expect higher prices to remain in place so they begin to demand higher wages to match. 企业, in order to hire new employees and retain existing ones, 必须遵守, 因此,他们提高工资,并通过提高价格将更高的劳动力成本转嫁给消费者. 更高的价格导致更高的工资,随着螺旋式上升,经济状况恶化.



Recent gains in pay and surging consumer prices have drawn comparisons to the high inflation and surging wages of the 1970s. 当时, wages and inflation accelerated to historic levels, leading the Federal Reserve to hike its federal funds rate to over 19%, an all-time high that contributed to two recessions in the early 1980s.

Still, there are signs that current conditions will not last. Consumers expect inflation will ease in the coming months, while markets expect the Federal Reserve's long-awaited rate hikes, which will raise borrowing costs and curb demand, are just around the corner.

A wage-price spiral remains a possibility, 达可说, 但通货膨胀和工资增长需要加速,而且目前看来正在企稳.

Fed Rate Hike Anticipation Pushes Investors into Value 股票s Over Growth

投资者正从以科技股为主的成长型股票转向提供更好股票的公司, 美联储今年加息预期的更直接价值.

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2月你.S. and Canada Summary Report: Leveraged Finance

The tilt toward positive rating actions continues in 2022 as upgrades have continued to outpace downgrades in the speculative-grade category.

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How Inflation Has Mixed Effects On U.S. State And Local Government Credit Quality

Inflation has jumped this year, with the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) reaching 7.0% over the last 12 months as of December 2021, a 40-year high.

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Fed's Inflation Conundrum Brightens Outlook for U.S. 社区银行

U.S. community bank margins are poised to rebound in 2022 as the Federal Reserve works to combat inflationary pressures but the expansion will not offer a material lift to earnings until 2023.

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U.S. Dollar Rally Set to Continue as Fed Readies Rate Hikes

美国.S. dollar has surged to its highest level since July 2020 compared to other currencies on rate hike expectations, a rally that analysts believe will continue to run with the Federal Reserve's push to tighten monetary policy.

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经济研究:你.S. Real-Time Data: High Prices Dampen Economic Activity and Moods

美国.S. economy continues to decelerate in January as omicron slows economic activity and inflation takes a bite out of purchasing power.

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和你在一起.S. inflation at the highest level in four decades, what will the year ahead look like for global markets against a backdrop of evolving monetary policy and the continuing pandemic?

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Global

Supply Chain, Inflation Top Subjects of Q4'21 Earnings Calls

Inflation and supply chains are topics of increasing attention, from both central 银行 and companies, 随着人们不再认为价格上涨是暂时的. 2021年,由于进口费用和物流价格上涨,供应链上的成本增加, from packaging to lawnmowers to food.

Global信贷状况特别更新:地缘政治、通货膨胀和利率风险上升

Downside risks to global credit conditions are escalating—in particular, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and the promise of higher borrowing costs.

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2022年Global主权评级趋势:尽管稳定,但大流行威胁复苏

大流行的演变仍是主权评级面临的主要风险. A more fragile social context and political polarization will limit governments' capacity to implement revenue and spending rebalancing measures.

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APAC

2022年APAC主权评级趋势:新冠疫情阻碍早期复苏

Asia-Pacific sovereign ratings are demonstrating resilience amid health crises, disrupted supply chains, 地缘政治压力, 和疲软的经济. S&PGlobal评级预计大多数评级在未来一到两年内将保持不变, even as COVID-19 continues to weigh on government and corporate balance sheets.

Australia's Biggest Bank Need Not Worry About Margin Drop as Growth Stays Intact

Commonwealth Bank of Australia expects its margins to remain pressured amid record-low interest rates even as cash profit rose 23% year over year in the six months ended Dec. 31, 2021.

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China May Cut Interest Rates Further to Revive Slowing Loan Growth

China is likely to cut borrowing costs further as its measured pace of easing has yet to revive bank lending and economic growth, 分析人士说,.

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EMEA

Economic 研究: The ECB Opens the Door to a Rate Liftoff

欧洲央行可能最早在3月份就开始让市场为货币政策正常化做准备. 这将取决于它在下次能源价格会议之前收到的一套新的预测, the euro exchange rate, and wage developments.

在加息之前,欧洲央行将不得不逐步取消PEPP和APP下的净资产购买计划. 鉴于欧洲央行目前的时间表,净购买量不太可能在2022年9月之前降至零. That would pave the way for a potential first rate hike in December 2022.

Balance sheet normalization will take time. S&PGlobal评级仍预计欧洲央行将在2024年底前对其持有的PEPP资产进行再投资, and the APP reinvestments could likely last longer than that. Given that the average duration of the ECB's bond portfolio is seven years, passive balance-sheet normalization could continue until 2031.

通胀和国内生产总值(GDP)走势更加乐观,表明此前的货币政策收紧

上周四, the European Central Bank (ECB) opened the door to an earlier monetary policy normalization than it had foreseen last December. Inflation--already elevated because of energy prices—has clearly surprised on the upside in the past two months, while GDP recovered to pre-pandemic levels in Q4 2021, and the unemployment rate is back to its lowest on records. 欧洲央行已经承认,大流行的经济影响正在继续减弱, so that the economy may reach full potential earlier than it previously expected. This may translate into higher prices more quickly than thought. With risks to price forecasts now on the upside, 欧洲央行已经明白,现在不太可能等到2024年才加息. S&PGlobal评级 believes that this could lead the central bank to bring its rate normalization forward to the final quarter of 2022.

Turkey Macroeconomic Update: Higher Inflation, Uncertain Growth Path

Turkey has seen a series of economic policy developments over the last few weeks, including a large hike in the minimum wage and the introduction of a forex-protected Turkish lira deposit scheme.

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European Developed Sovereign Rating Trends 2022: Recovery Depends on Reform

The 23 stable outlooks in the developed European rated universe indicate ratings that are not likely to change in 2022.

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EMEA Emerging Markets Sovereign Rating Trends 2022: Stable Overall But Fiscal, 外部, and Geopolitical Risks Predominate

As we enter the new year, sovereign rating trends in emerging markets EMEA look to be stabilizing (albeit with a balance of negative outlooks).

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Europe's 银行 Urged to Wait and See Before Cutting Loan Loss Reserves

The European Central Bank is warning 银行 against the early release of loan loss provisions and wants to ensure the assumptions behind existing provisions prove accurate ahead of further releases.

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Economic 研究: Where is the Wage Inflation? 不是在欧洲

Wage growth will not outpace productivity next year in the eurozone, and therefore will not exert inflationary pressure soon.

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资本市场

Credit Trends: Global Financing Conditions: Bond Issuance Looks Set to Contract 2% This Year as Monetary Policy Tightens

S&PGlobal评级 研究预计,到2022年,Global债券发行将收缩约2%. The global bond issuance total surprised to the upside in 2021, edging out 2020's breakthrough growth to finish at $9 trillion. A particularly strong fourth quarter led to the 5.到今年9月,中国的gdp总量比2020年同期下降了1%多一点.

2022年, fears have grown that the Federal Reserve could move too quickly, 积极, or unpredictably in its fight with inflation over the coming months, 这可能会阻碍增长和收入,并将收紧的货币政策输出到国外. This is the key item markets appear to be watching, but our base-case assumption that interest rates will rise this year without becoming restrictive remains intact at this point.

However, risks have grown in the past three months. Other headwinds are still blowing, including still-high cash balances among larger firms, China's deleveraging policies, difficult comparisons with 2021 totals, and the return to trend economic growth. Geopolitical risks have also grown, and several key elections globally this year could bring more unpredictability.

When Rates Rise: Tighter Monetary Policy Will Provide a Lift to U.S. 银行

美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve,简称:美联储)即将收紧的货币政策可能对美国经济大有裨益.S. 银行.

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大你.S. 银行 Bulk Up on Bonds, Cut Cash as Rates Rise

2021年第四季度,银行利用收益率上升的机会增加了债券持有量, a trend that has continued into 2022 as long-term rates have moved higher still.

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Private Equity Managers Expect Another Boom Year in 2022

预计到2022年,私人股本的交易撮合和融资将继续快速增长, although midmarket managers in both the U.S. 而欧洲在配置创纪录规模的现金时,也注意到了高估值和通胀压力.

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Czech 银行 Bullish on 2022 Performance Amid Rising Interest Rates

Czech lenders are optimistic of another strong year in 2022, 尽管央行加息抑制了2021年创纪录的抵押贷款需求.

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Metals

Metals Prices May Rally Further if Russia-Ukraine Tensions Impact Supply

Base metals rallied in the week starting Jan. 17 against a backdrop of rising Russia-Ukraine border tensions, higher inflation in major economies and market tightness.

Copper Above $10,000 First Time in Three Months Amid Multiple Factors

Copper prices vaulted over the $10,000/mt mark in trading Jan. 市场分析人士表示,由于多种因素的影响,中国股市自去年10月以来首次上涨12个月.

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石油 & 气体

Biden White House Again Under 新闻ure as 石油 Prices Race Toward $90/b

The White House once again faces few options to respond to high oil prices as they race toward $90/b just two months after the Biden administration tapped emergency crude stocks.

Analysts expect the administration to consider the usual grab bag of policies and rhetoric that get brought out when domestic fuel prices rise.

Those include urging U.S. and OPEC drillers to pump more, tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve again, promoting anti-OPEC legislation in Congress, pushing the Federal Trade Commission to keep probing price gouging, and potentially bringing back talk of U.S. crude export restrictions.

Energy prices are the largest driver of inflation, which is testing President Joe Biden ahead of the tightly contested November mid-term elections that will determine control of Congress.

最近几周,由于地缘政治紧张局势的一系列原因,原油价格飙升, robust demand despite omicron outbreaks, 欧佩克闲置产能的不确定性,以及重启伊朗核协议方面明显缺乏进展.

他说:“由此导致的油价波动不仅会带来经济放缓和选民失望的风险,凯文·布克说, managing director of ClearView Energy Partners, 在1月. 19个注意. "It also can create headwinds to the White House green agenda: a President who campaigned on ending federal oil and gas leasing has continued to tread relatively lightly."



SPR储蓄抹去

Biden took historic action Nov. 23 in ordering an SPR drawdown of 50 million barrels to bring down prices, something that had previously been reserved for physical supply disruptions. The Department of Energy has takers for a little over half of the barrels so far.

WTI crude futures dropped about $12/b in the week after the SPR announcement, but analysts saw omicron fears as the bigger driver in that price decline. WTI surpassed late November levels on Jan. 6, climbing nearly $7/b higher than when DOE announced the drawdown.

Crude 石油 Futures Prices Fall Amid Hot U.S. Inflation Report, Biden Remarks

Crude oil futures fell in midmorning trade in Asia Feb. 11, tracking the broader financial markets lower following a volatile overnight session that saw prices pressured by a hot inflation report and remarks from U.S. President Joe Biden pledging to curb high energy prices.

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U.S. FERC Cuts 石油 Pipeline Index for 2022-26 as Inflation Soars

美国.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission on Jan. 20 slashed the index that oil pipelines must use to set shipping rates for the next five years to a level that Chairman Richard Glick estimated would save customers $3.7 billion through 2026.

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高天然气价格可能导致粮食价格飙升,通过化肥环节

Global fertilizer prices soared to multi-year highs in the past few months following surge in prices of key feedstocks natural gas and coal, and certain export restrictions put in place by supplying countries.

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OPEC预计石油市场复苏不会因各国央行抗击通胀而受阻

欧佩克警告1月. 18 of a choppy oil market ahead, between lingering COVID-19 hotspots, surging inflation and ongoing supply chain disruptions, but said the continued emergence of the world economy from the pandemic in 2022 should keep crude prices supported throughout the year.

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U.S. 落基山脉天然气产量将在2022年继续下降,公司等待更高的价格

Operators in the US Rocky Mountain region said natural gas prices must maintain an average of more than $4/MMBtu before any significant ramp-up in production occurs, according to the latest survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas 城市.

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